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Stupid Investment of the
Week!
Commentary: Find a stop-loss point before you go any further
with stocks.
Maybe you're investing because you believe that stocks are "on
sale," or perhaps it's because you believe in the long-term
prospects for recovery. Perhaps you hold stocks that have been good
to you in the past, or which you've been in so long that you don't
want to go through the headache of calculating your capital gains.
Or you could be trading for a quick profit, or following the
discipline of dollar-cost averaging.
Whatever the reason, if you haven't come up with a stop-loss
point -- either a real trigger to get out of an investment if it
falls too far or an emotional point where you would sell -- you're
making the Stupid Investment of the Week. The trait under review belongs to the investor and not the
investment. Specifically it's about people who buy or hold a stock
in a trader's market without having a concrete exit strategy.
The hardest thing investors have to do is to determine when they
can make money in this kind of market, and when they have to
preserve capital, because those things are often at odds with each
other.
You are looking at something 'It's a bargain,' or feeling
like it can't go down much further from here, and yet you are also
looking at your portfolio and wondering how much of a loss you can
take if you are wrong.
Set Limits: There are plenty of stop-loss strategies, typically
involving a standing order to sell shares if they fall to a specific
level. That said, rigid stop-loss programs typically are wrong for
casual investors, as they can trigger losses again and again,
especially in a volatile market. So while many investors who follow
trading systems will always set a stop-loss at, say, 8% or 10% down
from their buying point, an average investor could find themselves
with a slew of investments all delivering a quick loss and never
reaching the longer-term prospects that are behind the holding. A
trader or someone with a system basically is using stop-losses to
avoid being wrong. Someone who buys and holds blue-chips, they're
trying not to be concerned with the short-term losses, figuring that
they will get paid off over time. At some point, however, those
losses start to add up and the math is not on your side. The problem
with riding things down is that a 50% loss in a stock requires a
100% move back up. ... The math is the best argument for basically
setting a selling point, one where you avoid losses or protect your
gains. For long-term investors, finding a selling point may not mean
setting a stop-loss order at a specific price per share. Instead, it
may be an emotional price, one where the investor says they are
willing to gamble with some of their winnings, but they are not
going to allow a long-time winner to morph into a long-time
loser. Unlike the person with a trading strategy, who takes proceeds
from a stop-loss trade and puts it toward the next investment that
meets their buying profile, a long-term buy-and-holder is looking
more to create their reason to get out the door, without regard to
the next investment. They are more concerned about protecting what
they have than finding a faster horse at the track.
Consider General
Motors which was trading 12 months ago north of $26 per share. At
that price, there were still plenty of long-term believers,
employees and former workers with huge slugs of stock in their
retirement plan and more. While the market was waking up to the
problems that have led to the company calling for a federal bailout
to avoid bankruptcy, the long-term, 'I-have-faith-in-America,
it's-too-important-to-fail' crowd was hanging on, and their accounts
were being slaughtered for it.
Avoid the Worst - Likewise, the
financial services industry spent the late 1990s and early 2000s
rewarding investors many times over, and yet a long-term holder who
simply figured "things couldn't get much worse" basically has
watched decades of gains evaporate.
Behavioral finance experts say
that investors tend to go through a progression that includes some
measure of denial about just how bad things can get. When they wake
up to horrendous losses, they are looking at account balances so low
that they may ride things out until the bitter end. Instead, Geist
noted, they should have a mental selling point, one where they say
they will allow that long-term winner to shrink back to maybe double
the initial investment or all the way to break-even, but that when
it reaches those scary levels it gets sold in order to avoid the
possible bitter end.
This "emotional stop-loss" is just as important
as the actual trade; effectively, it is like setting your limit at
the casino and saying "this is the point beyond which I need to stop
gambling."
"The more stress people are under, the worse their
decisions tend to become," Geist said. "So if you are holding
something today and you know there is a point where enough is enough
-- where you just can't take more loss or you just have to
acknowledge that whatever had you buying or holding the stock just
isn't working right now -- that point becomes your emotional
stop-loss.
If you know it in advance -- and setting it is the hard
part -- it will protect you from letting things get worse while you
try to figure out if you should hang on or not."
-- Market Watch |